7 Reasons Why We Fail to Spot Trends, How to Remedy This and Why It Matters to Your Wellbeing!
If you are tired of feeling like an idle train passenger in life rolling down a one-way track, here are the reasons you fail to notice change in the world (no matter how much news you watch) and what you can do about it. Swedish trendspotter Magnus Lindkvist wrote his book Everything We Know is Wrong: The Trendspotter’s Handbook (published 2010, so far only in the UK) partly to plead with us to:
a) Take more time to think and
b) Personally experience what is going on in our world (outside of what we do now) because then:
c) We take more control of our life, feel happier and we have more clarity, which opens the door for better decisions, creating solutions and for:
d) More inspiration
The BIGGEST PROBLEM with how we see the world is that we want to keep it simple all the time (read Reason #3 for a great solution to this) and simplistic thinking will not get us far in anything. As with most areas of our life, we overrate our abilities. This includes our ability to detect change.
Why you should read this and become a better trendspotter:
i) Creativity author Daniel Pink argues that the future belongs to the creators, empathizers, pattern recognizers and meaning makers.
ii) The late Anita Roddick, founder of the Body Shop, described successful entrepreneurs as “opportunistic collectors” – people whose antennae are out at all time.
iii) To enjoy the benefits of c) and d) above.
Reason #1: Some changes are far too slow to notice
Because they are not sudden and sensational, they don’t get media attention. One trend to be aware of is mass entrepreneurship. It is redefining capitalism. Small has become an advantage and is no reason for not going global. (Please forgive me for tooting my own horn here, but it is week 8 of the new year and my small business has speaking events that I am totally pumped up about scheduled in three countries already. I can immediately think of four people within a short drive of my office who have similar accolades and run small companies and this is not a ‘hip’ part of the world to live!)
Tip #1: Meet more entrepreneurs! Wealth nowadays is mostly SELF-MADE. The old millionaire was an overweight white guy in a grey suit. Now they come in all shapes and colors. Bono of U2 calls it “punk capitalism” meaning two things: business that changes the status quo and where anyone can play.
In the USA in 1985 there were 250 college entrepreneur programs. Now there are over 5,000!
“Nowadays, original thinkers capable of creating original products and services are the people driving the economy.”
Tip #2: Get new perspectives by:
a) Reading about the past – how has the world changed?
b) Changing your media habits by reading new sources (except this one of course!)
Reason #2: We tend to see the world in a fixed and rigid way
We generally think that the small world we grew up in was ‘normal’ and base all our judgments off that.
Tip#3: Share a story with your clients about one person’s example rather than using large numbers and saying “millions of Americans are making this bad decision.” They will relate to it better.
We understand things that we see before us (a friend being downsized) but struggle to care about “billions of people living on $2/day.”
Tip #4: Stop using the word ‘normal’. “These days, the world is a global place full of unique, quirky people and places.”
What’s normal? The world is always changing but “the human mind has trouble keeping up.” For example, the nations that exist today were not created by higher powers. All their borders are man-made. Lindkvist believes these boundaries are becoming ever less relevant in a world of global business, cheap flights, internet and thousands of micro-markets.
Tip #5: Change your daily routine; visit a new country every year and/or meet with someone from an emerging market every month. New perspectives lead to new insights.
Reason #3: Information abundance has left us clueless: sometimes we blink and we miss the change
Combine Reason #2 (we have learned to see the world in a certain way) with being overwhelmed by how much information is available. It is now easier to understand that 9/11 could happen and surprise 99% of the world even though Al-Qaeda had carried out several other prior attacks and Osama Bin Laden was already being mentioned in the World News sections quite frequently.
Lindkvist’s point here is that some things appear to happen ‘suddenly’ and we fail to see any writing on the wall because our brain is already suffering from information overload. Information used to be hard and often costly to find but now it is free and in abundance.
THE PROBLEM: we don’t know how to use what’s out there! We can seek out wisdom but very few do. Most people seek out the ‘feel good,’ easy-to-read content such as sports, porn and gaming sites. Based on internet searches, people opt most for finding sensational rumors about celebrities rather than seeking out knowledge that leads to wisdom and growth.
They seek out a sugar and fat information diet.
Tip #6: Avoid just filling your brain with pleasure-seeking trivia but also look for information that is inconvenient, complex, boring and uncomfortable to digest (fiber, fruit and vegetables!) Of course, you wouldn’t be reading this if you just wanted opioids (pleasure-enhancing neurotransmitters!)
Tip #7: Think twice about who you refer business to. In life we prefer people to be pleasure-enhancing rather like the information we seek out: people who are nice, outgoing and pleasant. BUT sometimes such people are very mediocre in their field! Make sure they have the competence and resources to get the job done well. I have made this mistake myself more than once and the consequences have been very costly!
Tip #8: Pause for daily reflection. Give your brain a chance!
In Jonathan Haidt’s The Happiness Hypothesis, he comments: “We might have already encountered the Greatest Idea, the insight that would have transformed us had we savored it, taken it to heart, and worked it into our lives.”
Consider how seldom we ask ourselves this question from Lindkvist: “What can you do with what you’ve seen, heard or read today? How can it help you solve the issues, problems and challenges you or somebody else (a client or COI?) is currently facing?”
Really, we race onto the next idea without contemplating the dozens we have already been exposed to. It is quantity undermining the quality.
Tip #9: Risk NOT pretending to know everything! Embrace changes. Mediocre people resist change because all they want to do is look good. Declare: ‘I don’t know’ from time to time!
Reason #4: We fail to think exponentially
A faster world forces us to use our imagination about what might happen in the future. Lindkvist believes that we can’t KNOW anything with complete certainty in such a volatile world where countries, companies, people and prices can change dramatically (think: Haiti, Lehmann Brothers, Tiger Woods, gasoline). Exponential change happens!
The truth is, many past generations complained that the world was moving faster. The idea/fear is not new. Older generations have always complained about it (and that the younger generations “don’t get it”- the younger generations have always said the same thing about their seniors!!)
Tip #10: TIME is the latest precious resource. Everything seems to be getting faster for everyone. Connect what you do with your clients to the new luxury – choosing how to spend one’s time.
In Felix Dennis’ How to Get Rich, he states: “And just what is the most precious thing in life that riches can supply? Easy. For me, it’s Time. Time to read and write poetry if I want to. Or to write a book if it takes my fancy. Time to travel on the slightest whim, to walk in the woods…to hang out with friends and loved ones.”
It is the new status symbol that you can control more of your time. In 1900 the status symbol was being overweight because it meant you had the money to indulge and over-eat. The body we want today requires time to keep it lean and toned.
TIME is what to emphasize when meeting with clients.
Tip #11: Prepare for possible exponential change by being proactive and using your imagination.
Get insurance, financial and physical check ups! Most of what shapes our lives seems to come as a surprise – accidents, illnesses, relationship changes, and deaths – often because our brains are so busy with the present. Yet because of this, many things are not really a surprise at all if we ever contemplated them. Relationships don’t usually change overnight; both positive and negative change develops gradually over time. Heart problems don’t develop in a week but usually come from years of unhealthy habits and the little decisions we make every day.
There are two points here. One is that we are often caught unawares by exponential things that come along. We can plan for some worst case scenarios: ‘Be proactive’ is the first of Stephen Covey’s 7 Habits of Highly Effective People. Also, significant great things can happen too that likely require some imagination. This is one reason why visualization is recommended to get you thinking bigger about your future (have you read The Answer yet?).
Tip #12: Since time is such a precious commodity, find ways to shave minutes from activities to give you a competitive edge (also understand that sometimes doing the opposite – spending more time with people – can give you the edge.) As I wrote about last week, also start asking yourself: What can I start delegating to someone else?
Reason #5: We believe that tomorrow will be more or less like today only with a few technological changes because many real changes challenge our worldview.
Think about the TV show the Jetsons from the 1960’s which supposedly portrayed the future. Despite the space travel and free-floating schools, every family had two heterosexual parents and two kids and the mother stayed at home full time only going out to shop. There was no downsizing, single-parent households, outsourcing or same-sex couples. It was a future vision with 1960’s social values.
Homosexuality still challenges some people’s worldview while others are finally acknowledging we are all the same species: gay marriage is now legal in the UK and Canada. Even if I use my own family as an example, my 20-something cousin is openly gay, but my mother’s 60-something cousin never admitted it to anyone except his mother and he doesn’t even know I know now!
Our flawed thinking when we look into the future is that we believe technology will drive the world forward exclusively and we UNDERESTIMATE the role of human emotions and values – the mistake made in the Jetsons. We OVERESTIMATE what is happening right now and IGNORE that there are always new, surprising developments and invisible trends (highlighted by these seven reasons). So we really need to use our imagination!
Referrals are a great case in point. Some people go on about how you should have thousands of ‘friends’ online for business referrals but technology is not the silver bullet if most of these connections are casual and thin. The human emotions that come from an authentic RELATIONSHIP and great service that align with actual real people’s values matter if you want a word of mouth endorsement to hold any weight!! Sure, use online as a tool but avoid depending on it.
Tip #13: Tomorrow will not be exactly the same for those over 65 either. The senior market is only going to grow and is likely to need more of YOUR services. Most people will continue to stereotype and see grey hair, prosthetics and ‘old people’. Lindkvist argues: This is a BIG MISTAKE!
What was normal in 1850 was to live to be 47. Nowadays my mother is not considered old at age 70. Nor should she be! She re-married at 69, has travelled to a dozen countries in Europe and Africa in the last 18 months, has directed two plays at local theatres and works out at the gym more than I do! That wasn’t either of my grandmothers at that age! Old people aren’t just getting older. As people remain healthy longer, they have more choices of multiple careers. They bring with them an increased level of uniqueness, specialization, skills and ideas. These are highly valued things that can have HIGH ECONOMIC VALUE! My (non-expert) prediction: over 70’s entrepreneur groups with Richard Branson as the founding member (until he becomes the first 100 year-old to climb Everest).
Tip #14: When visualizing your business of tomorrow, have more faith in your uniqueness/brand. Yes, DO what other successful people do in your industry, but do not imitate anyone else too closely or the outcome will be mediocre. BE yourself.
Reason #6: The world we see is our personal version; we believe that our world is THE world.
In the Talmud it says: “We see things not as they are, but as we are.” Most of us live our lives shielded in our spheres alone from most other worlds. Of course, we believe our worldview is true! Many of us support this by claiming that we have a wide variety of friends. Usually this means they vary in income and background but normally they have similar values and ways of thinking.
Consider this:
The median internet user is a young, well-educated man in proximity to a large city.
The median global inhabitant is a poor woman living in the vicinity of a war zone.
Same planet. Sure about your worldview?
Tip #15: Go to the source – don’t just trust second-hand information. Seek it out yourself in the world. And do talk to strangers.
Tip #16: Ask of people you disagree with: ‘what if they are right?’
Reason #7: We see the future pessimistically even though much of society gets a little bit better all the time.
Our thoughts about the future are sloppy and full of worries, ex. what if I fall ill? Will my children be happy? When we think ahead, most of our emotions range from mild anxiety to deep fear. Why? Partly because our thinking is mostly random and we fear loss more than we seek gain, partly because, yes, we are aging and one day we will die, and partly because we see the world of the media as accurate (even though it focuses mostly on all that’s going wrong: “Imagine a newscast focused on all the people who weren’t murdered in an average day, or the vast majority of people who kept their jobs in an economic downturn.”)
Also: Each generation likes to think it faces unsurpassed challenges (cue to all your dead relatives rolling their eyes in unison)!
And: Most people glorify the past and vilify the present.
We are blind to all the good things we have and take them for granted. We rarely discuss all the little good things that improve frequently and enhance the quality of our life, such as finding more healthy food options when travelling or at a local coffee shop (now selling oatmeal), technology that takes some stress away (my GPS), a service provider who improves the quality of our health (my chiropractor) or helps us feel more at peace with the future because of education they provide us or planning we do with them (my insurance agent). Or connecting with long-lost friends online or finding a group of like-minded people who share an obscure passion of yours whether it is backgammon or the same rock group from the 1980’s.
I was talking to two other English people two days ago about my life in the USA in 1988 compared to today and there are so many things that are better for people from my home country – free and virtual ways to talk to the family face to face on Skype, great live soccer and rugby coverage, much better beer, easy to find imported food – it’s a long list and it will get longer!
Will there always be problems? Sure. But failure is how we learn best. Multiple failures are virtually the only thing all successful salespeople have in common. To understand the future, study recent failures – that is often why laws are changed, legislation is passed and new politicians are elected (which also assures future failure!).
Technology, economics, consumer emotions and group dynamics drive change in our society. The pessimists may notice the problems but it is the optimists who solve them!
Final tips: take a break from the news; list out five things you are grateful for each day; beware the halo effect you put on another (no human is perfect; think Tiger Woods as only one recent example – shock horror!) and understand the pessimists because they are not always wrong.
Lindkvist concludes the book by quoting Nobel poet Laureate Wislawa Szymborska: “Whatever inspiration is, it’s born from a continuous ‘I don’t know.’” Only from a perspective of admitting we cannot have it all figured out are we then able to look to the future and start noticing change and, hopefully , things that can positively impact our lives and, who knows, maybe that million-dollar business trend idea!
PAUSE PLEASE and ask yourself: “What can I do with what I’ve just read? How can it help me solve the issues, problems and challenges I or somebody else (a client or COI?) is currently facing?”
Then forward it onto someone else that would appreciate some great brain fodder!
Matt@TheReferralAuthority.com
www.TheReferralAuthority.com